Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic had notable positive impacts on the environment, including a significant reduction in air pollution levels during the strict lockdowns implemented to reduce the spread of the virus. However, the long-term effects of the pandemic on air pollution have not been thoroughly studied. This paper examines this relationship using an interrupted time series (ITS) approach, while controlling for socioeconomic and weather variables in the USA. In addition, it evaluates the impact of several mitigation policies on the environment, and the extent to which they affected air pollution. Finally, it explores how air pollution levels changed during the pandemic by comparing real-world data with forecasts generated by SARIMA models. The results show that most mitigation measures significantly reduced air pollution levels. However, the empirical evidence suggests that the pandemic had no actual long-term effects on air quality and did not substantially influence the overall trajectory of emissions.
Author: Myrto KASIOUMI
Keywords: air pollution, COVID-19, SARIMA, forecast