Abstract: This paper examines the influence of social practices on environmental quality, taking the COVID-19 period as a natural experiment during which human behavior underwent significant changes due to the implementation of various mitigation measures and mobility restrictions. Focusing on the United States and three major air pollutants-NO2, PM10, and PM2.5-we study both the contemporaneous and long-term effects of behavioral change on air pollution. The emphasis lies on the persistence of air quality improvements after the pandemic, an underexplored area in the literature. Finally, it explores how emissions would have occurred in the absence of the pandemic and compares real-world data with forecasts generated by SARIMA models. The empirical evidence suggests that, although the pandemic reduced air pollution at a concurrent level, it had no long-term effects on air quality and did not substantially influence the overall trajectory of emissions, indicating that temporary behavioral change alone is insufficient to produce lasting environmental benefits.
Author: Myrto KASIOUMI
Keywords: air pollution; COVID-19; SARIMA; forecast